Thanks Mr B. Great piece as always. got a question. i just learnt there is such a fund like BTAL and i was reading on their page about how it works. as far as i understand, the price of BTAL doesnt reflect investor demand right? If price of BTAL going up it doesnt mean investors are buying but rather spread between short and long positions is positive and fund is making money, so that price per share is up?
inflation expectations represent a gcyclical rowth proxy w/in fixed income markets, agree? 10y real yields represent a measure of policy easiness/tightness. when real yields falling and breakevens rising i read that as easy policy stimulating growth expectations...and when real yields rising while breakevens flat/falling i read that as policy tightening. if breakevens and real yields rising together then it represents policy in sync with rising growth. make sense?
Thanks for sharing your invaluable insights. Curious about your SPY strategy of buying Bear Put Spread financed w/ SPY short Call. Ever think about selling VIX Puts in-lieu of SPY short Call?
thanks for feedback. i’m simply saying that the trade at inception and at the size i proposed is equivalent to a delta adjusted short spy position of -7%. this of course will change as time and prices change
Great piece - great data as always! Give me data or give me death.
Under the flagged, potential challenges to the “relaxed narrative” (slower inflation deceleration, China reacts to Pelosi’s summer holiday choices and lower growth”, I would add unemployment figures. There is not enough digital ink spilled about a potential downside surprise in labor. Particularly unemployment. Investors see the potential for these further down the line, if at all.
when are you dropping the next one pls ?
soon sorry…was on Aug holiday and just getting back. hope to update this weekend or early next week. thanks for reading
Thanks Mr B. Great piece as always. got a question. i just learnt there is such a fund like BTAL and i was reading on their page about how it works. as far as i understand, the price of BTAL doesnt reflect investor demand right? If price of BTAL going up it doesnt mean investors are buying but rather spread between short and long positions is positive and fund is making money, so that price per share is up?
Great post. One question. How is the 5-y, 5-y breakeven minus the 10-y real rate a policy proxy? I can't wrap my head around that
inflation expectations represent a gcyclical rowth proxy w/in fixed income markets, agree? 10y real yields represent a measure of policy easiness/tightness. when real yields falling and breakevens rising i read that as easy policy stimulating growth expectations...and when real yields rising while breakevens flat/falling i read that as policy tightening. if breakevens and real yields rising together then it represents policy in sync with rising growth. make sense?
It makes a lot of sense. The problem is I thought real yields falling means weaker real growth and vice versa?
sure but in that scenario breakevens are also falling, right? in which case it would not be a policy easing but a growth derating
Ah, got it. Thank you!
Thanks mr B, lovely summary of the state of play 👏
Thanks for sharing your invaluable insights. Curious about your SPY strategy of buying Bear Put Spread financed w/ SPY short Call. Ever think about selling VIX Puts in-lieu of SPY short Call?
Amazing piece, Thanks for that. Would it be possible to elaborate on the delta adjusted structure of the trade (-7%)? Much appreciated.
thanks for feedback. i’m simply saying that the trade at inception and at the size i proposed is equivalent to a delta adjusted short spy position of -7%. this of course will change as time and prices change
Great stuff, thanks for sharing.
Great work as usual, thanks for sharing it!
Thank you for putting this together.
and thank you for the feedback
You’re welcome. Learning a lot from you!
Great piece - great data as always! Give me data or give me death.
Under the flagged, potential challenges to the “relaxed narrative” (slower inflation deceleration, China reacts to Pelosi’s summer holiday choices and lower growth”, I would add unemployment figures. There is not enough digital ink spilled about a potential downside surprise in labor. Particularly unemployment. Investors see the potential for these further down the line, if at all.
thank you for the feedback. data is the lifeblood of any good analysis and the majority of good outcomes
Btw, unemployment did provide a surprise - just not in the direction I thought was more likely!