18 Comments
Jun 26, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Thank you for another excellent piece!

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Hi Mr B, love your thought process and how you lucidly explain it. I'm learning alot from and grateful for your writing. Quick question - some macro strategists are suggesting longing long term bonds/treasuries, with the thought that as Fed continue to tighten, recessionary factors will be deflationary and a flight to safety. What are your thoughts?

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Jun 25, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Mr.Blonde you should be called Mr.Beast in my opinion your articles are hands down from another world !

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Jun 25, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Brilliant, again. You are definitely on my short list of who I have to read as soon as they write. If only I had heeded your warnings a bit better.

I couldn't help notice biotech/pharma was top of the list of industry groups for your "Contraction" quadrant. Just as XBI is trying to bottom after a brutal 16 month bear market. Hmmm ...

One thing about the Fed. So many folk way smarter and savvy than me seem to care what the Fed says. I don't understand that. Doesn't the Fed get it wrong just about every single time? "Long way from neutral"? "Inflation is transitory"? "75 bps is off the table"? Etc. Why does anyone care about the dot plot?

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Jun 24, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Mr. Blonde,

again a great report. Both interesting and kind of "elegant".

I hard copied some of your datatables on historic evidences in the market data. Just to have them in my Idea-diary as inspiration and reminder . I appreciate your work very much and look forward to your next piece. Even when behind payroll...

PS What the h... does "% +ve" mean ?

All the best, Michael

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Doing best work on TWITFIN. Ur work product is one of the very few I’ll re-read & think about 1st b/f giving you a heads up. Thanks once again 🙏

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Thank you for this update.

Not Surprising to get another nice bounce on the way down lots lower. Nor is it surprising how quickly the inflation peaking ( energy & oil tops) &, buy bonds ( USTs et cetera) is becoming increasingly a consensus.

When anyone googles on social media & major periodicals ( inflation running hot) posts, thats also a cool indicator 😂

Your earning work is very well detailed. Thanks.

Just a question. Is there any downside room for your $190 EPS number in an global slowdown-recession where inflation backs off but remains well above 3, closer to 4%?

That’s where we stand.

Here in Europe for example, we’re in deep Dudu both on CB being blind to so many issues &, can’t help but recall every profit recession I’ve lived through ( since ‘87) has “salami like” cutting scenarios. Once stocks signal. Analysts downgrade 1st bite at the apple. Then economy takes its turn. More than expected. Analysts downgrade once again. 2nd bite at the apple. Then economic trend continues other direction (👇). Stocks dip again. Analysts cut again et cetera.

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Jun 24, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Great Piece.

Let me ask you something , as you mentioned bonds rallying with lower PMI & Hard landing possibility , but this also meaning FC's going to ease , some risk assets going to rally etc. Exact opposite of what FED wants.

Will FED pushback this pricing ? How can do it ? I mean they are extremely hawkish anyway.

Powell didnt eliminate 100bps possibility etc.

Are we going to see another bond market - FED fight ?

Also , FED binded himself in CPI and clearly stated they want MORE THAN 1 slow CPI.

Does it means every bad PMI , every bad data going to cut hike pricings and Speakers trying to pushback this expectation.

Would love to hear from you.

Have a good day.

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Jun 23, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Long IGV, long SARK (ARKK has been beaten up, but it is still dominated by a lot of sh#@ cos that will collapse in a recession!).

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Jun 23, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Mr B, your commentary over the last 12 months has been absolutely brilliant. Bravo sir 👍

Tell me I’m stark raving mad but I’ve put some money to work in beaten down high beta exposure as a play on falling yields.

Falling yields don’t trump fundamentals but as a short term trade with some added spice I like it. I’m keeping a keen eye on energy and will look to close out this trade if this resumes it’s march higher.

I don’t know if you ever plan to go behind a paywall or if there’s a way to donate and support such fantastic content. I’d be the first to sign up.

Best wishes.

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Jun 23, 2022Liked by Mr. Blonde

Q1/2 saw some pretty serious moves in reaction to neg earnings reports. You think we continue to see panic fleeing from companies who miss estimates, or do you think enough optimism has boiled off that we'll drop back into more commonly sized moves?

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