I historically represent dumb money, buy-and-hold... am trying to learn, so many thanks for your well-written pieces that have both action items and transparent thought processes.
One question if I may: is it just me or is this a very fast moving cycle? Just given what I've read from you and others regarding regime changes from a macro perspective, it seems as though we are moving rapidly through the various phases, but that could simply be a function of my lack of personal experience in "feeling" the rapidity of prior cycles.
Well written, straight to the points comment as per usual Mr. Blonde. Thank you. I agree with most of the colour, but would also add that I believe shorts should include materials sectors, specifically base metals because of the inventory builds and overall street consensus to the long side as a knee jerk to the current Ukraine situation and longer term look to EV's. Suppose many can't handle the volatility or mark down to portfolios there though. Those shorts pay for the long's in high quality growth in niche areas, like Optical cables. Really hard to see any other sectors that would allow decent sleep over the next 3 months.
Thank you very much. Is this environment from inflation moving towards recession not a good environment for gold? Especially the Royalty and Streamers which offer inflation protection as well? Main stream financial advisors (like you?) do not seem to recognise this, so maybe I am wrong and long.... Thank you again.
Feel to be blessed to read posts like yours Blonde...keep it coming..! What do you think about Larry Summers call that feds rate to be raised to 3-4% due to sticky inflation rates? I guess your long call on bonds based on your thinking that inflation be peaked but Larry sees we are in wage-price spirals that it will be up high for quite a long time...! I guess bond longs will pay off if hold onto for sometimes but yields should be biased upward all this year...besides seasonality effects, do you think we already saw peaks in bond yields (long ends >10yrs) fundamentally? Thanks Blonde God bless you!
Great post. I always enjoy and appreciate your insights. Nice to read your views on rates too after such a messy Q1 in that class. Any thoughts on energy and industrial metals? I understand they are cyclical and a slowdown is underway, but the narrative around structural supply imbalances that will take months/years to iron out seems pretty compelling and supportive going forward, no?
Am too old to trade or, more accurately stated, I’ve burnt both hands & feet chasing momentum & timing value over the years.
Long term cycles since I’ve been at this ( mid 80s) always include growth or lack thereof and inflation ( either too hot or too cold). And, you hammered it by using the adage of don’t fit the Fed. It’s a losers game that I can sing a long song about.😏
It dawned on me about 10yrs ago, after losing my shirt & a few other pieces of wardrobe in the 2000 crash that, focusing on high quality growth names that have been around for that past 50-60-70 yrs ( including World War II ) are a pretty good way to sleep & make money over time. Payouts included. You’ll probably laugh when I say Nestle, Lindt u Sprungli here in CH, Estée Lauder, L’Oreal here in EU land, tech names in the US like Microsoft, Google, Apple et cetera and, others just to mention a few still combine double digit compound growth and sport defensive characteristics that just can’t be overlooked.
I like the stuff you do. And read it carefully. Thank you for your Twitter space.
Excellent writing!!! It’s a pleasure to read ❤️🙏
I historically represent dumb money, buy-and-hold... am trying to learn, so many thanks for your well-written pieces that have both action items and transparent thought processes.
One question if I may: is it just me or is this a very fast moving cycle? Just given what I've read from you and others regarding regime changes from a macro perspective, it seems as though we are moving rapidly through the various phases, but that could simply be a function of my lack of personal experience in "feeling" the rapidity of prior cycles.
Well written, straight to the points comment as per usual Mr. Blonde. Thank you. I agree with most of the colour, but would also add that I believe shorts should include materials sectors, specifically base metals because of the inventory builds and overall street consensus to the long side as a knee jerk to the current Ukraine situation and longer term look to EV's. Suppose many can't handle the volatility or mark down to portfolios there though. Those shorts pay for the long's in high quality growth in niche areas, like Optical cables. Really hard to see any other sectors that would allow decent sleep over the next 3 months.
Thank you very much. Is this environment from inflation moving towards recession not a good environment for gold? Especially the Royalty and Streamers which offer inflation protection as well? Main stream financial advisors (like you?) do not seem to recognise this, so maybe I am wrong and long.... Thank you again.
Feel to be blessed to read posts like yours Blonde...keep it coming..! What do you think about Larry Summers call that feds rate to be raised to 3-4% due to sticky inflation rates? I guess your long call on bonds based on your thinking that inflation be peaked but Larry sees we are in wage-price spirals that it will be up high for quite a long time...! I guess bond longs will pay off if hold onto for sometimes but yields should be biased upward all this year...besides seasonality effects, do you think we already saw peaks in bond yields (long ends >10yrs) fundamentally? Thanks Blonde God bless you!
Why bother with individual names when the sp5 index delivers ? What would a price target be for a $TLT trade ?
Great post. I always enjoy and appreciate your insights. Nice to read your views on rates too after such a messy Q1 in that class. Any thoughts on energy and industrial metals? I understand they are cyclical and a slowdown is underway, but the narrative around structural supply imbalances that will take months/years to iron out seems pretty compelling and supportive going forward, no?
U do a good job. Key is to remain healthy above all so you can enjoy all the fruits of your labor 🙏👊
Am too old to trade or, more accurately stated, I’ve burnt both hands & feet chasing momentum & timing value over the years.
Long term cycles since I’ve been at this ( mid 80s) always include growth or lack thereof and inflation ( either too hot or too cold). And, you hammered it by using the adage of don’t fit the Fed. It’s a losers game that I can sing a long song about.😏
It dawned on me about 10yrs ago, after losing my shirt & a few other pieces of wardrobe in the 2000 crash that, focusing on high quality growth names that have been around for that past 50-60-70 yrs ( including World War II ) are a pretty good way to sleep & make money over time. Payouts included. You’ll probably laugh when I say Nestle, Lindt u Sprungli here in CH, Estée Lauder, L’Oreal here in EU land, tech names in the US like Microsoft, Google, Apple et cetera and, others just to mention a few still combine double digit compound growth and sport defensive characteristics that just can’t be overlooked.
I like the stuff you do. And read it carefully. Thank you for your Twitter space.
Lovely stuff as always 👏