Fantastic note again, I'm finding this the best resource to manage exposure. And sharing to all my friends. One question, given the high inflation levels can we expect potential upside in earnings compared to other recessions? Companies report nominal numbers which remain strong. GDP numbers are real which are pointing down, but nominal number are still strong and likely to roll over later.
Thorough and terrific analysis. I completely agree it is all about earnings, and while some active managers will try to anticipate the capitulation in the earnings outlook, the vast majority of investors will wait for this news to be front and center.
Appreciate it Blonde. Do you think we will see S&P hitting level where it be fairly priced in recession, 3k? Great call on bonds but still kind of amazes me 3.50% on 10yr was the highest we could get in this cycle despite --- QT, aggressive fed, higher inflation, draining liquidity. etc --- One thing I still worry about is that market will briefly welcome the fact that CPI peaked but there will be a moment soon when inflation seen as 'sticky' hanging 4-5% which will trigger repricing in bonds again. What do you think? Thank you always Blonde, blessed to read your views on markets.
As always, great content Mr. Blonde. I´m relatively new to your blog, but I´ve become a great fan of it. Insightful posts with awesome charts and data driven macro analysis... Thank you.
I do have one question, if you don´t mind. What do you think of going long QQQ vs DIA as a relative value play, probably goin double on the short side and 1x on the long side. Even though I agree with you that equities will most likely head lower, I believe QQQ has more macro risk discounted and could actually catch a bid relative to the Dow.
Always rather elegantly written and most importantly, based around rational analysis that frequently convinces in its determination to be evidenced based but not dogmatic. Refreshing. I often have to read it twice as am no expert, that’s not a bad thing but wherever possible keep explaining technical terms that you deploy, for some of us not from trading backgrounds.
Excellent as always, thank you. Whats the best way to calculate eps growth or revisions for the S&P 500 ex energy (or ex anything really). How are you handling weights? Or is there a shortcut/ticker for these series on factset or Bloomberg? I’ve been trying to come up with some similar tables & charts with factset or bbg data but am get bogged down in index/divisor math.
I know it shouldn’t be this hard, but any clarifying thoughts are much appreciated.
What in the world is going on with Materials EPS estimates?
https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/p/bummer-summer?r=1b1boy&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Fantastic note again, I'm finding this the best resource to manage exposure. And sharing to all my friends. One question, given the high inflation levels can we expect potential upside in earnings compared to other recessions? Companies report nominal numbers which remain strong. GDP numbers are real which are pointing down, but nominal number are still strong and likely to roll over later.
Thanks for the update Mr B 👏
Thorough and terrific analysis. I completely agree it is all about earnings, and while some active managers will try to anticipate the capitulation in the earnings outlook, the vast majority of investors will wait for this news to be front and center.
Appreciate it Blonde. Do you think we will see S&P hitting level where it be fairly priced in recession, 3k? Great call on bonds but still kind of amazes me 3.50% on 10yr was the highest we could get in this cycle despite --- QT, aggressive fed, higher inflation, draining liquidity. etc --- One thing I still worry about is that market will briefly welcome the fact that CPI peaked but there will be a moment soon when inflation seen as 'sticky' hanging 4-5% which will trigger repricing in bonds again. What do you think? Thank you always Blonde, blessed to read your views on markets.
Thank you for another great article! It's a big loss for investors who have not subscribed to the free Stuck in the Middle.
As always, great content Mr. Blonde. I´m relatively new to your blog, but I´ve become a great fan of it. Insightful posts with awesome charts and data driven macro analysis... Thank you.
I do have one question, if you don´t mind. What do you think of going long QQQ vs DIA as a relative value play, probably goin double on the short side and 1x on the long side. Even though I agree with you that equities will most likely head lower, I believe QQQ has more macro risk discounted and could actually catch a bid relative to the Dow.
Thanks again for the great content
Excellent work as always. You're the best follow I've found in the last several months. Keep it up!
Excellent work Mr. Blonde. Thanks for this.
Always rather elegantly written and most importantly, based around rational analysis that frequently convinces in its determination to be evidenced based but not dogmatic. Refreshing. I often have to read it twice as am no expert, that’s not a bad thing but wherever possible keep explaining technical terms that you deploy, for some of us not from trading backgrounds.
Thanks Mr. Blonde, great post and best wishes for a delightful and relaxed summer before we enter the autumn grinder.
Very helpful in these choppy times. To try and maintain a coherent strategic atc within which to operate helpful.
I just “discovered” you on Twitter and read the article. I am happy i did. Thanks 😊
Excellent information thanks for sharing.
Excellent as always, thank you. Whats the best way to calculate eps growth or revisions for the S&P 500 ex energy (or ex anything really). How are you handling weights? Or is there a shortcut/ticker for these series on factset or Bloomberg? I’ve been trying to come up with some similar tables & charts with factset or bbg data but am get bogged down in index/divisor math.
I know it shouldn’t be this hard, but any clarifying thoughts are much appreciated.