Good as always Blonde. Fundamental views not changed but brief rally coming meaning this likey bear market rally that is about to trap as many bulls as possible before it falls even harder? Bullard on Friday disappointed me just as much as Powell on Fomc day saying 75bps not actively considered. Its way too early for fed to send out signal to market fed put on its way. I think equities tanking hard now is ironically beneficial for equities later.
I feel ST rates have an asymmetric payoff profile here. Like how much higher can they push dec'22 FF? Eurodollars seems like an interesting option if you want exposure to inflation/econ/jobs coming in a little cooler than expected.
Once again I find myself thanking you for your work. To me, it is measured, uses basic economic building blocks that tell a reasonable story. I just don’t see how, We can have historically high multiples, rising interest rates, and a withdrawal of liquidity and the market not trend down from here. Of course the answer is that the market does not believe the Fed will continue to raise rates or follow through on the liquidity withdrawal. My current problem is that I don’t know how to trade, what sectors where we might see a bounce. Finally, I think I understand interest rate direction and impact on the markets, but don’t really understand the liquidity issue. Maybe you will write on that someday?
Has Shanghai’s port opened and other Chinese ports? April JOLTS had over 4M quits, over 11M job openings and sanctions have tightened on Russia. Commodity price roc is slowing but still rising. M/O/M last month was .3%. I guess slightly higher M/O/M mostly due to China shutdown, robust hiring, and recent increase in revolving credit.
Awesome read! I'm in a similar camp, my system hasn't yet signal to take positions but I do have growth concerns based on fundamentals, yet I fully acknowledge that risk assets may easily rally to near all time highs before a "growth scare" takes over. Happy speculating!
Thank for sharing your thoughts, I also agree that we are oversold and markets have priced in slower growth to fast. CPI print at below or at expectation will be the catalyst for this bear rally
Good as always Blonde. Fundamental views not changed but brief rally coming meaning this likey bear market rally that is about to trap as many bulls as possible before it falls even harder? Bullard on Friday disappointed me just as much as Powell on Fomc day saying 75bps not actively considered. Its way too early for fed to send out signal to market fed put on its way. I think equities tanking hard now is ironically beneficial for equities later.
Awesome, thanks.
I feel ST rates have an asymmetric payoff profile here. Like how much higher can they push dec'22 FF? Eurodollars seems like an interesting option if you want exposure to inflation/econ/jobs coming in a little cooler than expected.
Thanks for the update Mr B....interestingly yesterday I covered my Nasdaq puts and bought some QQQ’s so I’m you’re wingman.
Once again I find myself thanking you for your work. To me, it is measured, uses basic economic building blocks that tell a reasonable story. I just don’t see how, We can have historically high multiples, rising interest rates, and a withdrawal of liquidity and the market not trend down from here. Of course the answer is that the market does not believe the Fed will continue to raise rates or follow through on the liquidity withdrawal. My current problem is that I don’t know how to trade, what sectors where we might see a bounce. Finally, I think I understand interest rate direction and impact on the markets, but don’t really understand the liquidity issue. Maybe you will write on that someday?
Has Shanghai’s port opened and other Chinese ports? April JOLTS had over 4M quits, over 11M job openings and sanctions have tightened on Russia. Commodity price roc is slowing but still rising. M/O/M last month was .3%. I guess slightly higher M/O/M mostly due to China shutdown, robust hiring, and recent increase in revolving credit.
Awesome read! I'm in a similar camp, my system hasn't yet signal to take positions but I do have growth concerns based on fundamentals, yet I fully acknowledge that risk assets may easily rally to near all time highs before a "growth scare" takes over. Happy speculating!
Always excellent coherent well written thanks man
Thank for sharing your thoughts, I also agree that we are oversold and markets have priced in slower growth to fast. CPI print at below or at expectation will be the catalyst for this bear rally