Who is Mr. Blonde?
Reservoir Dogs is the first of many great Quentin Tarantino films. The cast of characters reflects the various market personalities we filter, but we all have the same objective – a successful diamond heist.
Stuck in the Middle is reference to the best scene in the movie and K Billy’s Super Sounds of the 70s. It also references the intersection of macro markets with the middle representing the optimal macro equity portfolio.
Mr. Blonde is an unemotional straight-talking bad ass – valuable traits of any successful macro minded trader.
Over a 15yr period, he spent time in equity strategy research at a bulge bracket firm, as a senior advisor at long/short equity hedge fund and similarly at a large multi-asset institution. He’s not a promotional person, not interested in notoriety and prefers anonymity with focus on the content rather than the individual.
What is the focus?
Institutional quality content here will be data driven, chart heavy and focus primarily on macro equity market expressions. The goal is to identify valuable trade expressions and insightful equity centric market commentary.
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. Empirical analysis of macro regimes is a key driver of framework and drives macro equity portfolio construction. Establishing lead indicators and identifying stage of profit cycle rate of change are central to defining risk exposure as well as allocation and security selection. History is a guide, but strong understanding of current fundamentals, themes and cross market relationships is imperative.
What to expect?
The focus is on the present and near future. Opinions about what markets might be in 10yrs time does not help us generate returns today. Markets are not a place to be stubborn.
The goal is insightful commentary and risk assessment while identifying profitable trades and making money. Mr. Blonde is opinionated about policy and politics like everyone else, but pontificating about what policymakers ‘should’ do won’t pay the bills. Think probabilistically and focus on markets for what they are rather than what we think they should be.
When not writing about tangible trades, expect:
insightful commentary observing market conditions,
valuation and growth insight,
structural/thematic equity market trades,
outline useful cross asset relationships,
describe tools or indicators used,
relevant stock screens
share interesting readings.
Notice there won’t be commentary on bifurcated political or social views, market conspiracy theories, fringe markets, or meme stocks.
When?
This won’t be daily, maybe not even weekly. Mr. Blonde says something when there is something worth saying. Expect almost weekly commentary and more frequent when markets present opportunity.
Why do this?
Writing my thoughts, observations and ideas provides the discipline needed to effectively manage a portfolio. This is an outlet and digital record of judgment.
The hope is to benefit from and leverage the network effect associated with expressing opinion and receiving constructive criticism in response. The content should create active discussion and interaction in a way that enhances my process. Learning is constant.
How much?
For now the content is free. It won’t be this way forever, but no one buys a car without test driving it first. The cost won’t be prohibitive, but the subscription fee will assist in covering market data expenses. Hopefully a few months will highlight the value.
