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Jm's avatar

Thanks for your insightful work, as usual.

A quick remark though on Sx5e dividends. If you want to play a correction in Eps, then it’s not dedz3 I’d short, but dedz4.

Dedz3 is a future on dividends paid in 2023 out of 2022 eps, which we already have rather goid visibility on. Q3 will be ok (cf no big pre-announcements), so, bar an horrible Q4, 2022 eps will be ok.

So imho the only way dedz3 really corrects is a bet on a wave of windfall taxes from gvt on banks/energy/utility names. This may happen, but is a totally different bet from your fundamentally bearish european equities eps trajectory.

Sharing your view on eps, I’d sell dedz4, as to me the main risk is on 2023 eps.

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Andre's avatar

Mike Wilson seems to have the same targets as you have.

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